Australian Liberal, National Party Split, and One Nation Thinks They're in with a Chance at a Coalition Government

This kind of ad may speak to One Nation's
existing supporters but it does nothing to 
convince me that their policies hold up.
Image: One Nation Website.

The proposed new hate speech laws in Australia have been very divisive. They may have passed by now but regardless, that's not the focus of this post. The laws were so divisive they caused the Liberal/National party coalition to split (again), as the National party leadership felt their position wasn't being heard by the Liberal leadership.

That's fair enough. I agree with National's Federal Leader, David Littleproud, that the Nationals shouldn't just vote in line with whatever the Liberal party's position is at the time. The problem is, the two parties need each other to successfully challenge the Labor party on election day. (As of writing the two parties appear to be together again).

So, of course, with Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party currently recruiting high profile politicians like Barnaby Joyce, and surging, for the first time, ahead of the Liberal/National party in the polls, they're canvasing the idea of a coalition government that includes them.

To put it bluntly, while I respect Pauline as probably one of the nation's hardest working politicians, for the most part, her party spends much of its time whinging, complaining, and pulling off controversial publicity stunts (to remind the media they're still here). 

For example, Pauline wearing a Burqa into the Senate chamber. It was a great image, got media attention, but have a wide majority of Australians really cared about Burqa wearing in the last decade? Is it even a big issue in Pauline's own electorate? You know, the people she actually represents?

Aside from One Nation's support of nuclear power stations being built in this country (which is the biggest deal breaker for me on supporting any party), it is continuously irritating how One Nation Senators constantly imply that they speak for 'All Australians' when they barely have any actual elected members in Federal Parliament (or State Parliaments too for that matter).

While it's true the current Albanese, Labor Government doesn't speak for all Australians either, it can at least say it speaks for a majority of Australians based on their 2025 election result where they won, right?

You also hear One Nation and other minor parties, that may not even be represented by actual elected members, complaining about the major parties and their 'centralist' strangle hold position. The idea that both Liberal and Labor parties are basically the same, and pretty interchangeable (they're not but it sounds good when you're trying to promote your party's Unique Selling Proposition - we're actually different!).

I'm thankful for compulsory voting in Australia. Which I'm sure stops extreme left or right wing parties forming government. At the end of the day, you might be sick of Liberal or Labor always being the leading parties, but despite the party differences, most Australians do fall around the middle on political issues.

Australians also understand that minor parties, like One Nation, do have their place but they are minor for a reason. Which is, their views and politics is not those of the majority of Australians. At the 2025 Federal election One Nation only got 6.4% of the primary vote compared to Labor's 34.5% for the House of Representatives.

I know that 34.5% isn't a majority either, but after preferences are distributed, it's enough Australians saying "if I had to pick one party, other than the ones I prefer, this is the one I can live with as a last resort."

It's conceivably possible that One Nation could be part of a coalition government but it would only happen by some miracle at the next federal election. The Greens have a greater chance of forming a Liberal/Greens coalition at the next election - they actually have the seats and twice the percentage primary vote of One Nation. 

Which sounds insane to me (and my first preference vote is to the Greens) but if you subscribe to the two major parties being basically the same, it's not a stretch to think the Greens could team up with the Liberal party. Not that they would.

Anyway, all of this is really just me thinking out loud into a blog post, with the intention of putting Pauline Hanson's One Nation party poll surge into perspective. While they are a growing voice in Australia, they don't yet speak for any kind of majority, and would require a guaranteed strong swing at the next election for any larger party to take them seriously as a coalition partner. 

Hopefully they never become that successful because I really don't want to live in their vision of Australia - especially not with their misguided, clichéd immigration policies that lack empathy and promote fear mongering.